Dec 26th, 2018

Team Members & Abstract

In this term project, trade statistics data of Turkey against the G7 countries and 3 more countries (Russia, India, China) is analysed. The aim of the project is to analyze Turkey’s export and import characteristics by product groups considering the trade value and quantities.

The purpose of the analysis is to understand the Turkey’s trade Statistics for two way and with ten important countries.

Describe Turkey’s the trade deficit with the country,year and product dimensions. Try to clear which factors effects deficit in trade, and is there relation deficit and other financials.

A clear understanding of the data to see if we can locate useful insights about which products and countries will remain the deficit and wich of them will be strategic for Turkey

Explanation of Raw Data and Data Preparation

  • 10 countries’ trade data against Turkey are taken from Trademap.org as 4 seperate excel tables, Export&Import Quantity and Export&Import Values

  • Quantity and Value tables joined following the binding operation of 10 countries tables. Besides, 2 digit product code table have been joined.

  • Same type of variables collated to one and “years”" melted to prevent repetition of quantity and value variables.

## Observations: 61,100
## Variables: 9
## $ Country       <chr> "Canada", "Canada", "Canada", "Canada", "Canada"...
## $ PcodeTwo      <chr> "72", "69", "25", "72", "68", "73", "73", "26", ...
## $ X__2          <chr> "Iron and steel", "Ceramic products", "Salt; sul...
## $ Product_Code  <chr> "7214", "6907", "2523", "7208", "6802", "7306", ...
## $ Product_Label <chr> "Bars and rods, of iron or non-alloy steel, not ...
## $ Unit          <chr> "Tons", "Tons", "Tons", "Tons", "Tons", "Tons", ...
## $ Quantity      <dbl> 131711, 1795, 22000, 220, 46950, 19782, 28212, N...
## $ year          <chr> "2013", "2013", "2013", "2013", "2013", "2013", ...
## $ Values        <dbl> 73607, 895, 1531, 211, 40420, 16625, 37956, 0, 0...

Analysis

Breakdown of Total Export and Import of Turkey Over Countries

Analysis

Breakdown of Total Export & Import

Analysis

Year over Year Changes in Trade Values - Export & Import - Canada

Analysis

Year over Year Changes in Trade Values - Exports & Imports to Russia

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Analysis

Trade Deficit and Effects of Countries on Trade Deficit

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Analysis

Analysis of the Import Unit Prices and Export Unit Prices

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K-Means Clustering

Conclusion

As a result of descriptive analysis of Turkey’s trade with G7 countries besides India, China and Russia, we noted that;

  • Turkeys’ biggest trade partners are China, Germany, Russia and US at import side while they are Germany, UK, Italy and USA at export side.
  • Germany and USA are the 2 top countries seen in both directions of trade.
  • Generally we have fluctuated trade trend with Russia.
  • Turkey’s trade deficit analyisis gives the results :
    • UK gives trade surplus for all years analysed
    • China, Russia, Germany and USA have the most significant effect on trade deficit
    • Trade deficit has negatively correlated with USD/TL rate between 2013 and 2016 but there is no relation BIST100 index.
    • Turkey’s trade deficit comes from China, Russia, Germany countires and most of deficit comes from products below :
      • Electrical machinery, equipments and machinery, mechanical appliances
      • Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation constitute
      • Vehicles other than railway and mechanical and electronical machinery and equipments
  • As a result of clustering exported products;
    • Vehicles other than railway is the group we spent the most money
    • Second group consist of Machinery, mechanical appliances, electronical machinery- equipments and clothing while third one includes iron, steel, pearls, ores etc.

Thanks - Q & A